NCWQ Environment Adviser’s Report – July 2024

NCWQ Environment Report, July 2024

Summary: This report considers transition towards net zero with renewables which could be underpinned by reliable baseload power, on demand power and storage.

It is concluded that comprehensive feasibility studies are needed to assess, on merit over a long time run, mixes of power sources for generation, storage and transmission to end user, considering the benefits, limitations and costs with different mixes. For generation renewables (wind, solar) could be underpinned by reliable baseload power (nuclear), on demand power (gas in the short term, pumped hydro) with storage e.g. hydrogen, lithium batteries. End of life disposal of components would need addressing.

As a matter of urgency, bipartisan support be sought for developing a successful energy transition that includes a mix of renewables underpinned by reliable baseload power, on demand power and storage.

Transition to Net Zero by 2050: The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has determined that renewable energy connected with transmission and distribution, firmed with storage and backed up by gas-powered generation is the lowest-cost way to supply electricity to homes and businesses as Australia transitions to a net zero economy. The optimal development path – a mix of replacement grid-scale generation, storage, and transmission, with an annualised capital cost of $122 billion to 2050 was the least cost path. However, this $122 does not include the cost of commissioned, committed or anticipated projects, consumer energy resources, distribution network upgrades1.

In their annual GenCost report, CSIRO provides a benchmark on cost projections and updates forecasts, given electricity costs change significantly each year. Cost of electricity technologies compared were black coal, gas, black coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS), gas with CCS, nuclear small modular reactor (SMR), nuclear large scale, solar thermal, solar PV and wind with firming. The modelling showed solar PV and wind with firming to be the most cost effective2.

GenCost determined that large-scale nuclear power was more expensive than renewables and would take at least 15 years to develop, including construction. This reflects the absence of a development pipeline, the additional legal, safety and security steps required, and weighing the evidence provided by stakeholders3.

Clean Energy Council supported CSIRO’s GenCost findings that nuclear energy was up to six times more expensive than renewable energy and renewables were the cheapest form of new-build electricity4.

There are dissenting views, on the cost of AEMO’s pathway to net zero, and some of the assumptions in GenCost.

Net Zero Australia, a partnership of The University of Melbourne, The University of Queensland, Princeton University’s Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment, and management consultancy Nous Group, modelled the capital requirement as $1.2 to 1.5 trillion of commitments by 2030, and $7 to 9 trillion by 20605.

Hilton et al claim there are flaws hiding the true costs of the proposed energy transition e.g. The ISP excludes the cost of recycling wind turbines, solar panels and batteries, making renewables appear cheaper than they are over their lifetime and excludes emissions from the manufacture of wind, solar and batteries, making them seem cleaner.

GenCost cherry-picks a single, overestimated data point from a cancelled project to use as the cost estimate for SMRs and does not include any data from large-scale, nuclear plants — making nuclear energy seem more expensive6.

In 2022, five SMRs {Russia(3), Pakistan & China, India} were operating; three under construction {Argentina, China, Russia}; 17 near-term development -development well advanced {USA (8), Russia (3), South Korea (2), UK, China, Canada and Denmark}7.

The first of four Darlington (Canada) General Electric BWRX 300 small nuclear power plants, is expected to be operational by 2028. BWRX 300s, a scaled down version of existing large plants, are 10th generation of Boiling Water Reactor designs with 90% of the nuclear related components based on designs already in operation and have the advantage of being able to operate over larger extremities of the existing grid without any significant upgrades8.

Hybrid power systems for mix. The intermittent renewable energy resources e.g. wind, solar need to be underpinned by reliable baseload power e.g. nuclear and on demand power e.g. gas, pumped hydro and storage e.g. hydrogen, lithium batteries

In a series of articles, David Simmonds CEng FIChemE, Director Simmonds Energy considers various hybrid technologies to transition in the UK9.

At the International Vienna Energy and Climate Forum on 2 November 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi emphasized the importance of integrating nuclear energy with renewable energies, hydro power and with other forms of energy to help countries reach their net zero goals. He claimed nuclear energy is currently one of the most efficient and important producers of clean energy. As a baseline, solid, dispatchable, 24/7, 365 days a year source of energy, nuclear energy can pair very well with renewable energies and even enable them, because of the intermittency of renewable energies10.

Nuclear power can contribute to the stability of electricity grids by backing up the intermittent output of renewable sources. Emma Midgley claims in “Innovations for 24/7 low carbon energy The power of hybrid energy systems”, that some nuclear power plants in the United States of America regularly adjust capacity by around 10 to 15 per cent to reflect common variations in electricity demand and the intermittent contribution of renewables11.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Colorado and the Idaho National Laboratory were linked by the Department of Energy’s Energy Sciences high speed Network to create a virtual hybrid renewable-nuclear plant with a solar array, lithium-ion battery, hydrogen electrolysers, and a nuclear reactor. The demonstration showed that renewable and nuclear energy, combined within a hybrid system, could complement each other well to support the grid and provide reliable power12.

Adrian La Porta, Technical Director of Process Engineering, Bryden Wood design company, says advanced modular reactors (AMRs) are expected to be ready by 2028. AMRs are decoupled from the power station so that the reactor generates heat which enters the heat transfer system, which then raises the steam that drives the turbine. The turbine and generator don’t have to be designed to nuclear standards and the existing equipment in the coal-fired plant can still be used. Rather than replace coal fired power stations with different power sources in different locations, it would be more cost effective13.

The first of Darlington (Canada) General Electric BWRX 300 small nuclear power plants, is expected to be operational by 2028. BWRX 300s, a scaled down version of existing large plants, are 10th generation of Boiling Water Reactor designs with 90% of the nuclear related components based on designs already in operation and have the advantage of being able to operate over larger extremities of the existing grid without any significant upgrades14.

South Korean APR 1400 reactor (1400 MWe), could be delivered by a South Korean team managing the construction in Australia and using their vast and experienced equipment supply chain14.

If nuclear power were to be included in the mix, safety and the management of waste would be important.

Safety of nuclear reactors:

Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission concluded that the accident could and should have been foreseen and prevented. It stressed the need to improve the competence and independence of the regulatory body15.

Since then, countries have re-evaluated and strengthened nuclear safety and emergency preparedness16.

Australian National University expert Tony Irwin, a member of the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency’s nuclear safety committee claims the latest generation of reactors are very safe, a modern reactor would have survived even the Fukushima accident17.

The nuclear power plants used in western nations such as Pressurised Water Reactors (PWR), Boiling Water Reactors (BWR), Gas Cooled Reactors in the UK and CANDU reactors in Canada have proven to be far safer than any other electricity generating source18.

Fossil fuels are the most dangerous energy sources, while nuclear and modern renewable energy sources are vastly safer. (Coal 24.6 deaths per terawatt-hour of electricity production; Oil 18.4; Natural Gas 2.8; Hydropower 1.3; Wind 0.04; Nuclear energy 0.03; Solar 0.02)19.

Emissions:

Fossil fuels have the highest emissions, while nuclear and modern renewable energy sources are much lower. Coal 970 gr CO2 equivalents per kilowatt-hour of electricity; Oil 720; Natural Gas 440; Hydropower 24; Wind 11; Nuclear energy 6; Solar 5319.

In a report on Energy Sustainability and Human Dignity, Nuclear for Climate Australia reported that the United Nations, the European Union Joint Research Council and the EDF Energy company found that nuclear energy has lower emissions than any other generating source including wind and solar with current nuclear plants having emissions as low as 4 gr CO2/kWh. Wind typically had around 30 gr CO2/kWh but with batteries emissions climbed to 110 gr CO2/kWh. Solar had round 70 gr CO2/kWh inclusive of batteries even in ideal conditions20.

Management of nuclear waste:

Used nuclear fuel, while compact is highly radioactive for tens of thousands of years. Physics Nobel prize winner Steven Chu notes Australia has areas of geologically stable rock where it can be stored underground. He even suggests Australia take advantage of the commercial opportunity of storing the nuclear waste of other countries21.

Legacy nuclear ‘waste’ can be recycled to provide fuel for advanced reactors22.

According to Mikhail Chudakov, IAEA Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Nuclear Energy, when fast neutron reactors are used in a closed fuel cycle, one kilogram of nuclear waste can be recycled multiple times until all the uranium is used and the actinides — which remain radioactive for thousands of years — are burned up, leaving about 30 grams of waste that will be radioactive for 200 to 300 years23.

Water: Australia is a dry continent with industries competing for water.

Australian National University expert Tony Irwin, a member of the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency’s nuclear safety committee claimed new technologies meant reactors could be set up for use with significantly less cooling water than coal power plants24.

In Boiling Water Reactor and Pressurised Water Reactor nuclear power plants, cooling water is purifying by demineralisation, filtration, and distillation and reused. The water recycling systems used in the nuclear industry is claimed to be among the most efficient, capable of recirculating water indefinitely, topped up with new water25.

Grant Douglas, a Senior Principal Research Scientist (CSIRO Environment) and Visiting Professor (Curtin University School of Molecular and Life Sciences) and his team have invented a fast process to capture radionuclides from liquid waste in a clay-like mineral, which can then be baked to form a stable material for disposal and long-term storage26.

Replacement at end of life;

The GenCost Report used a 30-year evaluation period that does not recognise the need to replace renewables technologies or an approximately 80 year useful life for nuclear reactors.

Solar panels last between 20 and 30 years have an average degradation rate of 0.5% per year Standard warranties are 12 to 15 years27.

The average lifespan of a wind turbine is 20 to 25 years. Manufacturers typically offer parts and service warranties of at least 10 years for turbines28.

The BWRX-300 is designed for a 60-year life with a possible life extension to 80 years29.

Licensing:

The BWRX-300 is based on the design of the much larger ESBWR that has achieved US Nuclear Regulatory Commission certification29.

The South Korean APR 1400 is licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States14.

Regulations:

According to the World Nuclear Association, Australia has a significant infrastructure to support any future nuclear power program. As well as the Australian Nuclear Science & Technology Organisation (ANSTO), which owns and runs the modern 20 MWt Opal research reactor, there is a world-ranking safeguards set-up – the Australian Safeguards & Non-proliferation Office (ASNO), the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) and a well-developed uranium mining industry30.

Resources:

On the basis of 2019 data Australia has 28% of the world’s uranium resources (under US$ 130/kg) – 1.7 million tonnes of uranium. In 2022 Australia (the world’s fourth ranking producer) produced and exported 4820 tonnes of U3O8 (4087 tU)30.

The World Nuclear Association estimates world’s power reactors, with combined capacity of about 400 GWe, require some 67,500 tonnes of uranium from mines or elsewhere each year. Although that the world’s present measured resources of uranium (6.1 Mt) in the cost category less than three times present spot prices and used only in conventional reactors, would only be enough to last for about 90 years, this does not consider secondary sources of uranium such as recycled uranium and plutonium, re-enrichment of depleted uranium or underfeeding at enrichment plants. In addition to known recoverable resources, there are substantial amounts comprising what is known as ‘unconventional resources’ e.g. rock phosphate, rare earth element deposits and black (alum) shales. Advances in reactors such as neutron efficient reactors which are capable of operating on a thorium fuel cycle, once they are started using a fissile material31.

Bipartisan support and development of a transition policy:

Unfortunately, it appears policy is being made of ideologically grounds.

As Jennie George, former ACTU president and Labor MP for Throsby, writes “ It’s not the objective of a net-zero economy that’s in dispute, but the means to achieve that goal. As Australia will lose 90 per cent of baseload capacity when coal exits the system in the next decade, she advocates the removal of prohibition on nuclear energy to maintain the economy32 as does the opposition33,34.

To have an informed debate, the benefits, limitations and costs over a much longer period need to be available and considered for pathways with different mixes of power sources. End of life disposal of components should be addressed in feasibility studies.

Conclusions:

Comprehensive feasibility studies are needed to assess, on merit over a long time run, mixes of power sources for generation, storage and transmission to end user, considering the benefits, limitations and costs with different mixes. For generation renewables (wind, solar) could be underpinned by reliable baseload power (nuclear), on demand power (gas in the short term, pumped hydro) with storage e.g. hydrogen, lithium batteries. End of life disposal of components would need addressing.

As a matter of urgency, bipartisan support be sought for developing a successful energy transition that includes a mix of renewables underpinned by reliable baseload power, on demand power and storage.

– Pat Pepper, NCWQ Environment Adviser, B.Sc. M.Sc. PhD

References:

1. https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/energy-roadmap-lights-the-way-to-net-zero
2. Graham, P., Hayward, J. and Foster J. 2024, GenCost 2023‐24: Final report, CSIRO, Australia.
3. www.energymagazine.com.au/csiro-gencost-report-analyses-potential-for-nuclear-generation/
4. https://www.energymagazine.com.au/report-finds-nuclear-power-six-times-more-costly-than-renewables/

Davis, D, Pascale, A, Vecchi, A, Bharadwaj, B, Jones, R, Strawhorn, T, Tabatabaei, M, Lopez Peralta, M, Zhang, Y, Beiraghi, J, Kiri, U, Vosshage, Finch, B, Batterham, R, Bolt, R, Brear, M, Cullen, B, Domansky, K, Eckard, R, Greig, C, Keenan, R, Smart, S 2023, ‘Modelling Summary Report’, Net Zero Australia, ISBN 978 0 7340 5704 4, . https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au/news-mobilisation-report-launch/